Title Race · 2026
TITLE RACE
Championship permutations
Who's still mathematically in the fight for the Drivers' Championship — and who's already out — based on the points still up for grabs.
Still up for grabs
22 drivers can still win the 2026 title.
11
Races left
2
Sprints left
291
Max points available
219
Leader points
Title odds
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
86%
Lewis Hamilton
8%
George Russell
4%
Charles Leclerc
1%
Lando Norris
0.3%
Max Verstappen
0.2%
How these odds work.
2,000 simulations of the remaining
11 races + 2 sprints.
Each car's per-race finishing chance blends its points-per-race form this season with our trained driver-skill rating (a car-adjusted Bradley-Terry model, applied as a modest tilt); we then tally who tops the table at year's end.
A model, not a crystal ball — real-world chaos (weather, DNFs, upgrades) isn't priced in.
In the hunt
Pos
Driver
Max attainable
Status
1
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Mercedes · 219 pts
510max possible
★ Leader
2
Lewis Hamilton
Ferrari · 169 pts · −50 to leader
460max possible
In the hunt
3
George Russell
Mercedes · 160 pts · −59 to leader
451max possible
In the hunt
4
Charles Leclerc
Ferrari · 138 pts · −81 to leader
429max possible
In the hunt
5
Lando Norris
McLaren · 128 pts · −91 to leader
419max possible
In the hunt
6
Max Verstappen
Red Bull · 109 pts · −110 to leader
400max possible
In the hunt
7
Oscar Piastri
McLaren · 92 pts · −127 to leader
383max possible
In the hunt
8
Isack Hadjar
Red Bull · 68 pts · −151 to leader
359max possible
In the hunt
9
Liam Lawson
RB F1 Team · 43 pts · −176 to leader
334max possible
In the hunt
10
Pierre Gasly
Alpine F1 Team · 42 pts · −177 to leader
333max possible
In the hunt
11
Arvid Lindblad
RB F1 Team · 23 pts · −196 to leader
314max possible
In the hunt
12
Franco Colapinto
Alpine F1 Team · 19 pts · −200 to leader
310max possible
In the hunt
13
Oliver Bearman
Haas F1 Team · 18 pts · −201 to leader
309max possible
In the hunt
14
Gabriel Bortoleto
Audi · 10 pts · −209 to leader
301max possible
In the hunt
15
Carlos Sainz
Williams · 6 pts · −213 to leader
297max possible
In the hunt
16
Alexander Albon
Williams · 5 pts · −214 to leader
296max possible
In the hunt
17
Esteban Ocon
Haas F1 Team · 3 pts · −216 to leader
294max possible
In the hunt
18
Nico Hülkenberg
Audi · 2 pts · −217 to leader
293max possible
In the hunt
19
Fernando Alonso
Aston Martin · 1 pts · −218 to leader
292max possible
In the hunt
20
Lance Stroll
Aston Martin · 0 pts · −219 to leader
291max possible
In the hunt
21
Valtteri Bottas
Cadillac F1 Team · 0 pts · −219 to leader
291max possible
In the hunt
22
Sergio Pérez
Cadillac F1 Team · 0 pts · −219 to leader
291max possible
In the hunt
How this is calculated. With
11 races and 2 sprints left, the most any driver can still score is
11×25 + 2×8 = 291 points. A driver is in the hunt
if their current points plus that maximum can still reach the leader's current total; otherwise they're
mathematically eliminated. Ties are decided on count-back (most wins), not modelled here.
Standings & schedule pulled live from the Ergast/Jolpica F1 data set.